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Well, last year started the same sort of way. Ferrari were a good way behind for the first half of the season. And then everyone laughed at Alonso when he said at Silverstone that they would win the championship, even though they were 47 points behind. He didn't win, but he did catch up, and lead the championship at the beginning of the last race.
I don't see why he and Ferrari can't do it again this year.