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@MrQwerty - Ok, in that context then I agree with you. And good question... It's a little difficult to answer, not having seen Vergne drive, so I can only base my opinion on what is reported. I would say Ricciardo purely due to the fact that Red Bull have gone to the trouble of putting him in a race seat. It seems as though DR is further along in the 'driver development' program than Vergne at this point. Though from what I've read, they're apparently line-ball for speed and/or talent. I would be very worried if I were JA.
At the end of 2012, assuming JA is dropped for Vergne at the half way mark, Ricciardo will have 1.5 seasons of actual F1 experience to Vergne's 0.5, so logically DR would be first in line. Unless, of course, Vergne is just plain faster, and I think Red Bull are pragmatic enough to just choose the fastest driver on offer.