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Ricciardo as the main talent, Algersuari hanging in by the skin of his teeth due to a strong finish to this season and Vergne applying the blow-torch to his seat. And even then, Algersuari is lucky to hold the seat. It shouldn't take the threat of being sacked to pull some performance out of a driver.
Buemi has no chance at staying. He's had plenty of time to prove his worth and hasn't. Sorry dude, now it's someone else's turn.
Then Ricciardo to Red Bull as soon as Webber vacates, my guess 2013.