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Paul did ok last year, albeit not as good as he seems to think he did. He's lucky he now gets Nico alongside him, which should help him be able to beat his teammate this year especially if he gets a bunch of points over Hulk in the beginning of the season.
It's really a big boon for him Sutil is now gone. If he would have gotten beat another year his reputation would have taken a big hit. Now though he has a great chance to beat Hulkenberg and look good. If he does so, him being a brit and connected to Merc at the same time might well see him end up at Mercedes or McLaren, eventhough I personally think others like Koba, Perez and on talent, Sutil would deserve the seat more. But that's F1...Some of it is talent, but a lot is connections, money and sometimes a little luck of the draw.