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Before you begin to count the points before the race has been run, remember, they now have to begin with full fuel on the one track that demands the least downforce. Meaning, the first 20 laps will be very interesting, seeing who has the necessary mechanical grip on full fuel in the corners. While preserving tires that do not take kindly to constant scrubbing.
I think it will be a great race and we might see a Ferrari, or a Lotus on the podium yet. A Red Bull does seem less likely at this point.