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Apart from the collision in Japan, Alonso has five consecutive podiums, including two second place finishes in the last two races. I'm not sure how anyone can be gullible enough to fall for Ferd's story about how woeful his car is.
I recall Hamilton insisting that there was no way on Earth he could possibly take pole in AbD - right before he did it.
I would not be even slightly surprised if Alonso takes a win in the next two races. His car is certainly capable of it.