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In Suzuka Alonso had his Mark Webber Korea 2010 moment and hasnt mentally recovered since. With better qualifying he could have taken the fight to Vettel in India and to Kimi in Abu Dhabi and maybe won those races. Unless Vettel suffers a DNF or Ferrari can convince the FIA to outlaw parts of RB8 its over for him. Vettel doesnt even need to finish in front of Alonso anymore depending where Alonso is of course. If say Hamilton or Kimi wins one of the remaing two races a second and a third place for Vettel will get him the title on countback even if Alonso wins another race and second in the other one.