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You have no way of knowing that. It might have been a three way fight but if Vettel hadn't had two mechanical failures, if Alonso hadn't been taken out at Spa....if my Auntie had b0llocks she'd be my uncle etc.
If you'd stuck possibly before 'have' I'd have accepted if, as it is you have no way of saying for Certain McLaren could have won. They should have but that's another story.