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Logically, any driver in a car not capable of winning won't win. Nased on last year, that excludes pilotes in Marussia, Caterham, Toro Rosso, Sauber and Force India Cars. Of the race winniing cars, I think SP is most likely as the McLaren is a fundamentally faster car than the Lotus, and he's fairly reliable. RG would be second choice, driver less reliable, car less quick. As a wild card I'd go for VB, all depends on what car Williams cobble together for 2013 - remember this time last year, who'd have suggested PM?