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baby blue. there are a number of points in your arguments.
first of all, last years merc lacked mechanical grip. how do you know that this years car will be any better? it could in fact be worse!
then there is the driver. you are assuming that lulu is actually a better driver than either schumi or nico. that does not neccessarily hold water.
yes nico had a win last year, ubt where was lulu, in a supposedy faster car, or even alonso, vettel etc?
it is not possible from just ONE result, to say that any driver will do better than the previous driver. there are far too many variables. one of which will be the likliehood of internal strife at chez merc!