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Lewis is a good fast driver although he does lack consistency during parts of the season. Nico is also fast but we don't really know yet whether he is a match for Lewis.
Mercedes isn't quite where it needs to be yet in order to challenge the leaders but they may turn things around sooner rather than later. I believe they have a better chance than McLaren from what we have seen so far.
It's still early days with a lot of races left.