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This years Fez looks to be a big improvement to last years pig that uses it tyres better than the RB (thats why RB a lobbying to have them changed).
So I think Ferdi will be giving Bieber a good run for his money this year.
Yes the RB is still a better chassis and quicker in quali, but come race day Ferdi finds his speed and only needs to push Seb to wear his tyres out. Time will only tell.