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While there have been instances of drivers coming from behind and winning WDC, but I doubt if Button has that capability if the cars are all of equal performance. Unless McLaren gets a substantial gain over all others, it is difficult for Button to outperform all the drives in equal machinery. There are many drivers there now who have good chances: Vettel, Alonso, Raikkonen, Hamiton and even Massa or Rosberg. Webber is thereabouts, but he has to first beat his own teammate which is doubtful. Button should expect everyone to have an avergae year, while he has his own best. The probability is very low. He shoulds core top-5 positions (if not better) in the next two races to be realistic.