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I don't believe it is too early, the reality is that the champion will be one of Vettel, Alonso, Raikonnen or Hamilton, with Vettel and Alonso as the joint favourites.
There are no other drivers who can challenge this four on a regular basis and while Button might just sneak in a win later in the season if Mclaren ever manage to sort out their car he won't be anywhere near this four. It has always been the case that their is a top group of drivers and the winner always comes from that group.