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I think McLaren's plan to introduce a new car was brave, but it appears to be the incorrect strategy at this point. Yes, they will be able to further develop their car compared to the other teams but the deficit will be great. I think Jenson could win two to four races in the second half of the season, but I believe Kimi, Seb and Fernando and perhaps even Lewis will win two to four as well, and they will rack up points when they are not winning. Button to win races? yes. To win the title? Major long shot.