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Kimi clearly has the pace, his Q2 time was good enough to be 6th and in front of Massa. I am certain he simply made a mistake on his only run (like Alonso did, but the latter already had a lap earlier), so maybe the team could have gone for two runs.
I think his race pace is similar to that of Vettel and Alonso, but he he will have to clear the FI's and Massa really quickly if he has to fight for the win.