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I think Mr Horner is playing his "Mr nice guy" hand and underplaying where he believes Redbull to be. There will inevertibly be a bit of change given the state of the tyres but Redbull look to have once again got the upper hand very early in the season. The reality is that the only sustained challenge will come from Ferrari with Lotus pushing hard and Mercedes falling away as the season progresses. Mclaren are'nt even in the race so I expect Redbull and Vettel to sow up the championship before the end of the season.