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If they can lock out the front row with their cars that seem to work well in qualifying trim, Monaco has to be Mercedes best chance. Whoever is 2nd into St Devote holds up the field and lets his team mate build a big lead without knackering the tyres and the victory should be in the bag.
Lewis is also mighty in Canada so that could be another chance.
I hope Lewis gets a win this year. He deserves it. He is doing a magnificent job for Mercedes.