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If Mercedes drive like a team, they can potentially block any passing, the only problem is the guy in #2 will have his aero wrecked by chasing in the faster sweeping turns. Gonna be interesting to see how hard Ferrari and Red Bull push at the beginning to get to the front, cause if Mercedes can wreck the air in front of them, they will have issues with tire deg if they push for too long with out success.
Lotus and Red Bull will be praying for open air.