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Actually Hamilton's record on this track and it's similarity to Monaco, were clear indicators that Lewis was capable of victory. Tires were a question mark, as was the temperature, but with strong work from Mercedes, Hamilton's skill was allowed to come to the fore.
The Kimi to Ferrari story is nonsense. There is a better chance of him going to Red Bull (or even McLaren) than a return to Maranello. Seriously ... I see Ricciardo at RB and a possibility (though very slight) of Mark Weber renouncing his retirement to join Alonso at Ferrari and Kimi staying at Lotus.