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In a couple of years Newey will go back to his beloved yachts because he has made no secret of his frustration at the ever tightening regulations. Then would be the perfect time for Vettel to move to Ferrari. I believe that in 2010 and 2012 there was little separating RBR and Ferrari cars in terms of performance. Alonso's poor qualifying is largely to blame for his narrowly missing out on those championships.
At the start of the season this year Alonso said the car was 200% better than last year but he is doing worse.
I can see Vettel in red in 2 or 3 years.