MotoGP » Le Mans: Dovizioso 'so happy' after strong race


“I'm so happy with the race” – Andrea Dovizioso.

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TalentFan

May 22, 2013 9:36 AM

I haven't done the exercise, so honestly don't know the outcome.

As I've said though, I feel the best indicator of performance and competitiveness isn't necessarily finsihing position, but the overall race duration margin between the winner and the rider/bike in question. To weed out the anomalies and get an "average perfomance indicator" then separate Wet & Dry races. Then add all the margins together and divide by the number to get an average figure for Wet & Dry.

It might be educational to then compare the resulting Wet Race and Dry Race values between VR's 2012 rides, and Dovi's 2013 rides on the same bike. It should give a pretty fair and accurate indicator of relative performance and whether or not there's any progress.

TalentFan

May 22, 2013 9:58 AM
Last Edited 414 days ago

Ok. I just put my Nerdy head on and ran some numbers from the 3 GPs so far in 2013 that ran in 2012 (Qatar, Jerez, Le Mans), and compared the stats for Rossi and Dovi as above:

Rossi Finish positions 10th, 9th, 2nd (Av Fin Pos 7th)
Dovi's Finish positions 7th, 8th, 4th (Av Fin Pos 6.3rd)

Av Gap to Winner Rossi: 26.140 seconds
Av gap to Winner Dovi: 25.441 seconds

Basically, there's nothing in it. About the only conclusion this very limited data suggests is that Dovi on the Ducati is doing as well (or very slightly better) than Rossi was so far.

No year-on-year comparison can be perfect I think, but this is about the best and most fair I could think of.
I'd say that this is a pretty fair 'test' though to gauge relative performance.

TalentFan

May 22, 2013 10:21 AM

Cont... Just cos I was doing the above anyway......

Using the same system, Rossi's stats come out as below. Note I ignored Laguna Seca as VR was Unclassified there, and in the 2 events where he was lapped I used the Gap to winner posted by the last unlapped rider ahead of VR - so if anything the average figures are marginally better than reality in favour of Rossi:

Season Average Finish Pos (where Classified): 7.11
Season Average Gap in Seconds to Winner: 35.09

Codger

May 22, 2013 11:25 AM

@ TalentFan...Interesting stats....and good to see that you have some time on your hands :).

I believe that you should have factored in the winners time at each race compared to last year. If each winner was faster or slower it will skew your results.

At his own admission Rossi didn't push last year, and if Dovi is pushing, then that would skew the results too.
Ah stats, don't we just love them?

Personally I can't wait for the Ducati to improve, we'll know from Nicky when it happens.

TalentFan

May 22, 2013 12:38 PM

@ Codger "I believe that you should have factored in the winners time at each race compared to last year. If each winner was faster or slower it will skew your results."

We know stats never tell the whole story. However, I didn't do as you suggest cos
a) I really couldn't be bothered to go that far, and
b) the other variables in the races such as conditions and the relative competitiveness cannot be controlled

I still think as an overall guideline though it is a better tool to measure relative performance than finishing position - as one week there might be 5 guys going v well, and only 2 the next, plus mistakes / crashes etc.

Best to compare the performance in overall time lost against the rider who did the job best I think - the winner and regardless of overall race time (as the conditions that made the winner faster or slower will be the same for the rider being looked at every time).

What do you think? Is this a 'fair' comparison test?

TalentFan

May 22, 2013 12:44 PM

You do need a good amount of data though - if you look at the numbers, then actually Rossi's results from 3 early races v Dovi's are much better than his overall stats - simply as it includes a close 2nd place that is much better than his typical performance.

As I say - to really see if Ducati do make progress you'll need the full years stats to get a meaningful answer (unless the have a sudden 'Eureka' breakthrough in the bike and the results get significantly and obviously much better).

StonerTheSpeedMaster - Unregistered

May 22, 2013 12:59 PM

@TalentFan
great !!!
Very rational and most logical way of performance measurement as you suggested if not to say the most accurate.
the less gap time to the winner on every race shows how competitively or hard a rider rides. Casey always cut big time off the front runners in his ducati days is why the ducati was quite a contender!

Codger

May 22, 2013 1:06 PM

@TalentFan

The Hondas, imo, are quicker this year, however I haven't checked. As you say, far too many variables.

Ducati must have learnt a lot from Rossi & JB last year, as even negatives can point you in the right way. Ducati say that quite radical upgrades will arrive in July, (remains to be seen of course, they've made promises in the past) and, if they achieve what they are supposed to, it will show in Nicky's results as he is the common factor. Dovi will be pushing for podiums, he doesn't need much of a lift anyway. When the front end does get sorted we'll see them turn the engine up a notch or two as well, they toned it down because the power pushed the front too much.

TalentFan

May 22, 2013 2:05 PM

@ Codger "Ducati must have learnt a lot from Rossi & JB last year, as even negatives can point you in the right way"

Hmm - not sure we can credit VR & JB with too much given its the Factory Engineers & Designers who develop the kit. But input is input I guess.

Agree that NH is the benchmark as he's the Constant at Ducati through the Stoner, Rossi and Dovi tenures.

So far NH couldn't live with CS, was pretty much there with VR, and its close-ish and too early to say really where Dovi is concerned. I reckon NH is better than people think - its just CS's unreal talent on a bike no-one else could master that made people think otherwise.

I think had NH's input been listened to a lot more than just VR & JB its possible that Ducati would have made more progress, and NH's results could've been more favourable too through 2011 & 2012.

Codger

May 22, 2013 3:58 PM

@ TalentFan...possible scenarios :-

Melandri..."I can't ride this POS"
Ducati......" here's the phone number of a good shrink"

Casey..."the front end causes me to understeer and I have to turn down the electronics so that I can spin the rear to compensate"
Ducati...."you're winning, what more do you want?"

Nicky...."the front end pushes"
Ducati...."Stoner can win on it"

Rossi...."bloody hell how did Casey ride this thing? Can you produce this that and the other, it might improve things"
Ducati.....in a low whisper..."don't bother to pass that to the engineers. Casey could win on our bike"

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