It's always difficult to predict how closely pre-season results - which are ranked in terms of best lap time - will transfer over to actual race results, given the number of distortions possible in testing due to tyres, new parts and fuel loads etc.
But for comparison, here are the overall results from the 2010 Qatar test (March 18-19), alongside the race results from the following Qatar Grand Prix (April 11), which was the next time the riders were on track.
Note that
Casey Stoner crashed while in the lead and pulling away, while the condition of Jorge Lorenzo's hand injury improved between the test and race. Those two riders aside, the race top six closely resembled the single-lap ranking at the test.
The biggest improvers between test and race were Dani Pedrosa, Hiroshi Aoyama and Marco Simoncelli - who gained six places - but four riders that were in front of them at the test failed to finish the race, making their real gain much more modest.
Rider: 2010 Qatar Test - 2010 Qatar Race (Difference)
Casey Stoner: 1st - DNF (NA)
Valentino Rossi: 2nd - 1st (+1)
Andrea Dovizioso: 3rd - 3rd (0)
Ben Spies: 4th - 5th (-1)
Nicky Hayden: 5th - 4th (+1)
Loris Capirossi: 6th - 9th (-3)
Jorge Lorenzo: 7th - 2nd (+5)
Randy de Puniet: 8th - 6th (+2)
Colin Edwards: 9th - 8th (+1)
Mika Kallio: 10th - DNF (NA)
Aleix Espargaro: 11th - DNF (NA)
Alvaro Bautista: 12th - DNF (NA)
Dani Pedrosa: 13th - 7th (+6)
Marco Melandri: 14th - 13th (+1)
Hector Barbera: 15th - 12th (+3)
Hiroshi Aoyama: 16th - 10th (+6)
Marco Simoncelli: 17th - 11th (+6)
The 2011 Qatar test concluded on Monday (overall results shown below) and, unlike last year, there is only a few days before the race weekend.
We'll know the race results on Sunday...
1.
Casey Stoner 2.
Dani Pedrosa 3.
Ben Spies 4.
Marco Simoncelli 5.
Andrea Dovizioso 6.
Hiroshi Aoyama 7.
Randy de Puniet 8.
Jorge Lorenzo 9.
Colin Edwards 10.
Nicky Hayden 11.
Hector Barbera 12.
Alvaro Bautista 13.
Valentino Rossi 14.
Loris Capirossi 15.
Karel Abraham 16.
Cal Crutchlow 17.
Toni Elias