After seeing his two previous MotoGP title chances slip away, it's all or nothing for rookie Marc Marquez at Valencia this weekend.

A black flag at Phillip Island and beaten by Jorge Lorenzo in Japan means Marquez's lead has been cut from 43 to 13 points over Yamaha's reigning double champion, heading into the season finale.

But fourth place, even if Lorenzo wins on Sunday, will be enough to hand Marquez the title.

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Given that the Repsol Honda star has finished on the podium in all but two races - the Phillip Island DSQ and a late fall at Mugello - the championship still looks firmly within his grasp.

But the high pressure scenario, unpredictable Valencia weather and cramped circuit layout mean nothing can be taken for granted. Indeed, the previous 2006 Valencia title showdown saw Nicky Hayden overturn Valentino Rossi's eight point lead after the Italian fell.

"It's been nice to have a week at home after a long three weeks away, after my accident in Motegi I've doing muscular rehabilitation on my neck in anticipation for the race, and it now feels much better," said Marquez, who fell heavily in the extended morning warm-up at Motegi.

"We've had good races in Valencia; I've always tried to give it my best there. I have fond memories of last year's race in Moto2 but the weather will also be a factor to consider because it is very changeable. I'm already looking forward to getting back in the pit garage and getting on the bike!

"Obviously we know what is at stake in this final grand prix of the year, but we will - as ever - approach it as we have done every other race, and work hard from the Friday and do our best."

Whatever happens, Marquez will surely get further chances to fight for the MotoGP crown. But Sunday will be his one and only shot at joining 1978 title winner 'King' Kenny Roberts as a rookie world champion, an achievement that would also make Marquez the youngest premier-class champion in history.