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I think there'll be no first-time winners in the early part of the season. Judging by 2012's performances, JLo and Dani will be on the top two steps of the podium. Cal, MM and VR46 will likely be disputing 3rd. As the season progresses, it will depend on whether the Yamaha or the Honda emerges supreme. If the Yam is the better bike JLo and VR will be one-two. If the Honda is better, then Dani will have to encounter misfortune before MM wins. Later in the season I think Marc may get his first win. For Cal to get a win the Yam will need to be better than the Honda and he will need to beat JLo and VR. I'm a Cal fan, but sadly I don't think that's a likely scenario.
Yam vs Honda? Honda got 2013's improvements (revised chassis, trick clutch/gearbox) in 2012. Yam will probably have updated transmission for 2013 so the outcome is difficult to guess. There's an interesting season ahead.