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I wouldn't bet on either to be honest. I just mean I don't think you should straight away assume Spies will be better. It's been said often enough that Spies hasn't really delivered yet in the factory team.
I'm not sure if it is a case of Cal maturing, last year was his rookie which is always tough. He didn't really like the tyres much and was finding it hard getting used to them and the braking of MotoGP bikes.
This year things are different and more in his favor (new tyres, larger engine), combined with an extra year of experience I think he could have a really good season. He needs to try and take advantage of the first few races while his bike is close in spec to the factory M1. If Cal and Spies were on equal machinery all year I really wouldn't like to call it.