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The comment about combine Smith and Redding is a good one. I still think Smith is more likely to succeed because he does think, makes a bike/tyre last the race, and can be aggressive. Did you see the helicopter shot of his start this weekend. 19th to 6th by the end of the first corner. I'm not sure it gets much more aggressive than that, but I'm not sure he is aggressive often enough.
I still don't think we have seen the true measure of Brad because of his machinery, but Herve and TECH3 will know far better than any of us because of the data they have access to.