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No, he's not a championship favorite with Stoner on the same bike, but with Stoner gone things change a bit...
The question is whether Lorenzo would still beat him in the championship. That's not quite a "lock". Ironically both of them got injured last year though I dare say that Pedrosa got the worst of it.
So realistically if one of them were to change teams it would probably be Pedrosa, he's been with Honda for long enough for both sides to have had enough of it. It would mean that Spies goes back to a satellite team though, which Yamaha would definitely consider, but would Yamaha really want two Spanish riders on its factory team...especially one with as many years in MotoGP as Pedrosa has? I'm thinking that they would give Josh Hayes a call first before bringing Perdrosa over from Honda. Spies may not make it past this year but without a doubt he represents a huge market for Yamaha.