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I think people are overestimating Marquez's potential. Sure he's fast, but his bully boy tactics won't work as well when he's up against the more experienced riders in MotoGP. I also suspect he's going to have trouble chucking the bike about the way he does in Moto2. MotoGP bikes have almost twice the power as Moto2, but he'll only be dealing with an extra 20kg. The power to weight ratio is immense compared with what he's used to.
For those two reasons he's going to have to learn to settle down and ride more subtly. Sure he's got potential, but until we've seen him on a MotoGP bike we can't say how much.
I certainly don't see him putting in a rookie year as good as Pedrosa's.