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@Don-R there is absolutely no doubt that with Stoner not fully fit Spies should be on the podium. If he doesn't make it onto the podium then he isn't good enough.
As for the mythical weight advantage of the other riders look at the difference between Pedrosa and Lorenzo. Lorenzo is 27% heavier than Dani, do you hear people excusing Lorenzo on the basis of his weight? Of course not, he's ahead of Pedrosa in the championship and has beaten him more often than he's been beaten by him. Spies OTOH is only 9% heavier than Lorenzo. Or to look at it another way that's about 2% in terms of the whole bike and rider package. Hardly a significant amount.