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Nobody figures anywhere.
If I need to spell it out for the hard of thinking I will:
This is FREE PRACTICE. Not a race, not qualifying. And it's taking place under less than ideal conditions. Even in perfect conditions some riders are out there pushing the limits, some are trying different setups, some are even just learning the track. In the wet you have to factor in that some are avoiding taking risks. And in drying conditions all bets are off.
As such the times are academic.
The point I was trying to make above is that the pro Hayden crowd of this morning were being foolish.