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I think Rossi and Ducati is just a mismatch. He will be far more competitive on the Yamaha. For me the question is: How much did his shoulder really influence his results in 2010 (apart from broken leg). I can remember that he really smoked the competition in the pre-season tests that year (even Lorenzo).
But if this shoulder issue didn't affect him a lot than it will be difficult this year to match Lorenzo/Pedrosa or even Marquez.
But otherwise he will be world champion again.