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When Cal's Tech 3 seat expires at end 2013, the only factory seat expiring will be Nicky Hayden's. And if the Duc still isn't fixed, then who'd want that seat? IF Cal has a good 2013, and IF VR46 retires, then there's a possibilty of a factory Yam seat, but at Cal's age he will probably be overlooked in favour of a younger rider.
It's a shame, Cal is a great ballsy rider but having peaked late his prospects look limited.