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I thought Lorenzo impressed in his first year. Got pol in his first three races and it took him three tries to win one all this with an inform Valentino as a team mate. I do agree he pushed to hard while trying to prove his mettle and that resulted in some massive crashes. this isn't a dig at spies, but Lorenzo achieved more in his first three races then spies did in two years on the factory Yamaha do to say his debut was unimpressive is a little harsh IMO. On the matter of marquez, I think he is smart enough that he would take Lorenzos first few years into account. Yes he will have to find the limit, but I think he will learn a little quicker that if you push these bikes the wrong way you'll end up on your ass.
If bradl ever gets full factory support I feel he could be a dark horse and tech3 by the look of it will never get full factory support so unless some crazy events take place I don't see cal getting the job done.
I voted Marquez.. Like most ppl