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I've said this before, but its worth repeating... if ANY of JL, DP, MM or VR finish in 4th at the end of a dry race then they are basically LAST in the only group with comparable kit, in a small select race of their own at the front.
So 4th means very different things to riders. To any of the above 4th is last - 5th or lower is a disaster.
To Cal or any othe rest, then 5th is realistically as close to a win as they should be able to achieve with the advantage the Japanese factory bikes have. Which means that a dry 4th is like a win, while a dry podium is a BIG deal. A dry win for anyone other than the big 4 would be a miracle.