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Pessimism? No. Realism? Yes.
All the available info, form and the restrictions to development indicate that it is a virtual impossibility.
If Ducati do win in the dry in 2013 (when all the Factory HRC & Yam riders finish without incident or accident), it'll probably be because they got lucky and found a set-up or evolution / part that just clicked just at the right time, in the ideal conditions, and at the right track. Even then it'd be a minor miracle, and one that it would take divine intervention to be able to repeat, unfortunately.
They don't have enough Testing to be able to properly develop and prove new parts innovations for it to be as fully scientific a process as they need IMO.