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Lets look at the strengths of the top two Honda and Yamaha riders.
Lorenzo - fast and consistent. Pedrosa - Very fast, but only sometimes. Marquez - Youth and speed, but impetuous. Rossi - fast, persistent, crafty.
They are all capable of lapping within tenths of each other in qually, BUT...In a race Rossi is capable of making the rider in front of him go slower. The rider in front has to take defensive lines because Rossi will pester him. Rossi will pounce on the slightest opportunity to pass, and is skilled in creating those opportunities. And once he is past them, , VR is a very hard rider to re-take.
JLo and Dani may not have the racecraft to hold VR back.