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I think the podium will be Lorenzo, Rossi and Pedrosa (not saying in what order). Marquez is fast but I think it's too soon for him to manage to keep his speed over race distance. The way he was braking and sliding the rear today at the end of the straight, he should have a hard time with his tyres towards the end of the race. Also, his riding doesn't seem consistent enough yet, looks a bit all over the place, like Crutchlow or Simoncelli looke in their first steps in MotoGP. That kind of riding may put you in the first row or even pole, but won't win you a race against the likes of 26, 46 and 99.
He'll get there soon enough, though.