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Although Marquez to me is still an unknown quantity (I'm not going to make judgements from one race), the other three will come down to who nails the set up.
Pedrosa suffered because his team could not find the right set up for him to push. His tires degraded, hence his finishing position.
With nothing between the three in terms of raw speed, it's going to be interesting wo watch how the season unfolds.
I agree, if anyone of them scores a DNF it is more than likely over for them unless the others receive a DNF at somepoint as well.