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You can keep your tub-thumping and chest beating - what a load of old b0ll0x (as usual).
We can't know what race day will bring - but its a long lap, with a couple of looong straight bits. The factory Honda's may have the edge, but the Factory Yams still have the edge over everything else.
JL/VR/DP/MM have the tools to leave the rest behind. So there's your top 4 (as will/should be the case all year). Just the order will change, or if one or more has an incident.
Lower than 4th is a catastrophe for ANY of these guys at the flag - as their teams KNOW they have the kit. Even 4th means the rider didn't perform - there's nowhere to hide and little margin - but then that's why they get the best kit & the the big bucks.
A HRC bike should win today - that seems certain tho.