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On a works Yam Cal would be as fast as JLo. Cal fights harder than JLo, so beating JLo would be inevitable, and a win for Cal would be highly probable.
Rossi is the key. If 2013 is good to him he will stay at YamGP- their partnership is mutually beneficial to their status and profile. If VR doesn't have a good year Yam may "transfer" VR46, maybe to WSBK? VR may be happy with that, or he may retire. Either scenario is possible. If VR46 goes, Cal deserves his seat.
If a works seat doesn't happen at Yam, a Honda works ride is a possibility. But Honda already have MM93, their new Messiah, so they need someone to support, not challenge him, so maybe DP26's seat is safe after all. A satellite Honda may be an option for Cal, but with Yam improvements on the way the T3 seat may be his preferred option, providing that they guarantee him up-to-date factory equipment. This would effectively make YamGP a 3-rider factory team, just as Honda and Ducati are now effectively 4-rider factory teams.