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"you can count him out of contention for a factory seat."
I believe Cal has a very reasonable chance of a factory ride - just not with Yamaha. I think next year might well see him moving to either the Suzuki or Ducati factory squad. Neither of them particularly coveted rides, unfortunately, other than in terms of salary. But then it's hard to foresee any rider outside of Spain or Italy being on a factory Honda or Yamaha for some time to come.