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Rossi last won here in 2008. Lorenzo has won here 3 times since then. Despite that, if it's dry, I won't be the least bit surprised if Pedrosa wins. Stoner won by a country mile in 2011, and last year lead most practice with a chattering bike, then shredded his rear tyre in the wet race. It isn't as "Yamaha" friendly as history suggests.
It's a stretch to see Rossi winning, but he'll win one sooner or later, and the outpouring of joy from his sad fans will be entertaining when he does!