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You may (MAY) have a valid point. I would say though that its impossible to state its the case. The pool of riders who've got the chance to move from a satellite to full factory is very small, while the chances of failing to make the grade are much, much more likely than the likelihood of succeeding. Why? Experienced fast guys used to the kit and the data, the teams etc. etc. as well as being fast-tracked due to being damn good mean that ANY Satellite guy moving up is a No2 status rider and on the back foot from the get go, while the straight-to-factory guys are fully settled in and supported from day 1 and have the budgets and support.
So your statement is no more than a guess really. For all we know Alex Espagaro might just be the best rider in MotoGp right now, let alone CC - IF given the opportunity on equal kit to learn and compete.