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@ Jerginz. Granted the guys showing the most promise and talent in lower classes will get the factory seats more often than not. However....
You have to factor in the politics and backing that some riders have that helps their cause and leapfrogs them over other worthy candidates. There's not enough seats for all potentially worthy riders, so you need backing to get the ride. There are Satellite guys over the years who have done well enough to deserve a shot but have been overlooked in favour of a guy with no MotoGP experience but better backing - happens all the time.
We cannot say unequivocally that NO satellite guys could be capable of performing at the very top level with full factory team benefits, as more often than not the politics see to it that they never get the chance. Stoner from LCR to Ducati is the exception that proves the rule (and then only cos Ducati weren't seen as a competitive factory plum ride by better backed pilots).