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I also mentioned Mugello because of Vale's record there (I was there watching in 2007 from the Ducati stand (I'm not Ducatisti - just happened to get a ticket to sit there).
It could be argued that if Vale is going to win anywhere, it'll be at Mugello. So if he cannot be very strong here, then I'd say it doesn't bode well for lots of top 2 finishes for Vale. But if he wins, it might just be a whole new ball game.