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The Hondas, imo, are quicker this year, however I haven't checked. As you say, far too many variables.
Ducati must have learnt a lot from Rossi & JB last year, as even negatives can point you in the right way. Ducati say that quite radical upgrades will arrive in July, (remains to be seen of course, they've made promises in the past) and, if they achieve what they are supposed to, it will show in Nicky's results as he is the common factor. Dovi will be pushing for podiums, he doesn't need much of a lift anyway. When the front end does get sorted we'll see them turn the engine up a notch or two as well, they toned it down because the power pushed the front too much.