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Is there really any doubt bar crashing and getting injured Marquez is the clear contender. He has is a rookie but he is riding like a veteran in terms of risking but also after crashing out of second I think he has taken stock to win first you must finish. Also despite dislocating his shoulder 4 hours earlier he still actually vied for the lead against Jorge with Jorge winning by a slim margin. Jorge knows that full fit Marquez can beat him. Now don't get me wrong it is not that Jorge is necessarily less of a rider but Marquez has the skill AND the bike. Plus he likes to dice and while Jorge is pretty good I think like Stoner and Dani he prefers to ride not race.