Nicky Hayden can win his first
MotoGP World Championship in Sunday's Portuguese Grand Prix, the penultimate round of the 2006 season - but, unless recent form is reversed, the American could instead see his title lead disappear altogether.
Since winning his home US Grand Prix in late July, Hayden has failed to finish on the podium for the past four races - partly due to persistent clutch problems, causing poor starts - resulting in the Repsol Honda rider's advantage over reigning five-times champion
Valentino Rossi plummeting from 51 to 12 points.
Fortunately for Hayden, Honda has promised an improved clutch for this weekend - but Rossi can smell blood and will arrive brimming with confidence for the final two confrontations of the year. The Italian has finished on the podium in those last four races, including a win in Malaysia, and also has a impressive record at Estoril. The Camel Yamaha rider finished second behind Alex Barros last year but was victorious for four successive years before that.
The problem for the two championship contenders is that there are plenty of other riders capable of winning the race - headed by Ducati's
Loris Capirossi, who has won two of those last four races including the recent round in Japan.
The Italian, a former 125 and 250cc champion, is now fourth in the championship and 31 points adrift of Hayden. Realistically he can’t win the title but can have a massive bearing on the outcome - as can another Italian and former 250cc world champion,
Marco Melandri.
The Fortuna Honda rider is five points in front of Capirossi, 22 behind Hayden, and has also hit top form - winning the Australian Grand Prix and finishing third in Japan. Melandri can also concentrate fully on racing, after signing a new contract with the Gresini Honda team for 2007, ending speculation he was about to join Ducati.
The fifth and final rider with a mathematical chance of winning the title is Hayden's rookie team-mate
Dani Pedrosa, who was Hayden's nearest rival until a knee injury and rain wrecked his chances in the last two races. The young Spaniard returns to the fray looking to build on an already superb MotoGP debut season in which he’s won two races and finished on the podium eight times
Last year, Australian
Casey Stoner won the 250cc race at Estoril and - like Pedrosa - has switched impressively to the MotoGP class this season. Crashes, including one at the previous round in Japan, have kept him down in sixth place but he’s very quick and could be a big threat to the leaders.
Former 500cc World Champion
Kenny Roberts is looking to complete his eleventh season in the premier-class with two good results on the Oxfordshire built KR Honda. It’s been a great year for him and his father’s team after so long in the doldrums and Roberts trails Stoner by just nine points in the Championship.
Americans
Colin Edwards and
John Hopkins contest ninth place in a season of mixed fortunes. Edwards, team-mate to Rossi, came so close to winning his very first grand prix in Holland and was sixth in the Estoril race last year. Hopkins has put in some great qualifying performances on the Rizla Suzuki but has not managed a podium finish. His rookie team-mate
Chris Vermeulen has recorded a top three, but makes his Estoril debut and will be praying for rain after his brilliant second place through the spray in Australia.
Spaniard Sete Gibernau needs a good result to continue with Ducati and since his return from injury has been in good form at the last three races.
