TalentFan

May 22, 2013 12:38 PM

MOTOGP » Le Mans: Dovizioso 'so happy' after strong race

@ Codger "I believe that you should have factored in the winners time at each race compared to last year. If each winner was faster or slower it will skew your results." We know stats never tell the whole story. However, I didn't do as you suggest cos a) I really couldn't be bothered to go that far, and b) the other variables in the races such as conditions and the relative competitiveness cannot be controlled I still think as an overall guideline though it is a better tool to measure relative performance than finishing position - as one week there might be 5 guys going v well, and only 2 the next, plus mistakes / crashes etc. Best to compare the performance in overall time lost against the rider who did the job best I think - the winner and regardless of overall race time (as the conditions that made the winner faster or slower will be the same for the rider being looked at every time). What do you think? Is this a 'fair' comparison test?

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TalentFan

May 22, 2013 10:21 AM

MOTOGP » Le Mans: Dovizioso 'so happy' after strong race

Cont... Just cos I was doing the above anyway...... Using the same system, Rossi's stats come out as below. Note I ignored Laguna Seca as VR was Unclassified there, and in the 2 events where he was lapped I used the Gap to winner posted by the last unlapped rider ahead of VR - so if anything the average figures are marginally better than reality in favour of Rossi: Season Average Finish Pos (where Classified): 7.11 Season Average Gap in Seconds to Winner: 35.09

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TalentFan

May 22, 2013 9:58 AM
Last Edited 28 days ago

MOTOGP » Le Mans: Dovizioso 'so happy' after strong race

Ok. I just put my Nerdy head on and ran some numbers from the 3 GPs so far in 2013 that ran in 2012 (Qatar, Jerez, Le Mans), and compared the stats for Rossi and Dovi as above: Rossi Finish positions 10th, 9th, 2nd (Av Fin Pos 7th) Dovi's Finish positions 7th, 8th, 4th (Av Fin Pos 6.3rd) Av Gap to Winner Rossi: 26.140 seconds Av gap to Winner Dovi: 25.441 seconds Basically, there's nothing in it. About the only conclusion this very limited data suggests is that Dovi on the Ducati is doing as well (or very slightly better) than Rossi was so far. No year-on-year comparison can be perfect I think, but this is about the best and most fair I could think of. I'd say that this is a pretty fair 'test' though to gauge relative performance.

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TalentFan

May 22, 2013 9:36 AM

MOTOGP » Le Mans: Dovizioso 'so happy' after strong race

I haven't done the exercise, so honestly don't know the outcome. As I've said though, I feel the best indicator of performance and competitiveness isn't necessarily finsihing position, but the overall race duration margin between the winner and the rider/bike in question. To weed out the anomalies and get an "average perfomance indicator" then separate Wet & Dry races. Then add all the margins together and divide by the number to get an average figure for Wet & Dry. It might be educational to then compare the resulting Wet Race and Dry Race values between VR's 2012 rides, and Dovi's 2013 rides on the same bike. It should give a pretty fair and accurate indicator of relative performance and whether or not there's any progress.

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TalentFan

May 22, 2013 9:23 AM

MOTOGP » Michael Laverty - Q&A

Good interview from Michael Laverty. You can see the guy has self-belief but he's not cocky and knows he's got to work for everything he gets. IMO he's done really well so far, and it'd be nice to see ML and the PBM1 develop, improve and move forward. I always keep an eye out on the screen for Laverty's position and keep track of how he's doing - even though he's not going to be seen on screen for more than a second or two. I wish him good luck and success for the rest of the season. If (IF) he can attain the target of running close or with the Aspar bikes I think there's ll be a few eyebrows raised in the Paddock!

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TalentFan

May 21, 2013 8:10 PM

MOTOGP » Le Mans: Rivals impressed by Honda rideability

I guess maybe am current yardstick is needed to show what the performance gap really is between Yam & Honda? An interesting one would be a move by Crutchlow from Yamaha to Honda. If his achievements and competitiveness stepped up another notch & Cal became a bona fide WC contender then I think that'd be a good indicator that a Honda is a bit (but a bit is a lot at this level) better than a Yamaha

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TalentFan

May 21, 2013 7:48 PM

MOTOGP » Le Mans: Dovizioso 'so happy' after strong race

@ CRT I'm not arguing. I'm not even saying that Dovi IS the man to take Ducati back to the top for sure. But I do think he's the right man for them right now to help restore Ducati as a marque that an ambitious, talented and successful young rider might seriously consider as a viable career step once more. Why? Simply because Dovi is NOT seen as a super-star. So where any success VR got would be attributed to VR not the bike, any successes Dovi gets will see the bike getting some credit for the achievement, rather than just all the blame for any shortcomings. Its all a matter of perception for the average fan - with the same result and outcome in a race, Ducati will always come out of it looking better with a Dovi on board than a Vale because of how both riders are (or at least were) perceived by so many. That's my point.

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TalentFan

May 21, 2013 7:39 PM

MOTOGP » Le Mans: Valentino Rossi 'A good result thrown away'

@ Realist. I have hopes for Crutchlow, but 2013 is proving to be more competitive for the first half-dozen or so spots than it has been for a while. With DP & MM on fire, JL's Le Mans is unlikely to become a pattern, and with VR also on the factory yam, Bradl on a factory supported Honda, as well as Dovi seemingly making some progress on the Ducati, Hayden showing some pace too - I'd say breaking the glass ceiling to 4th a few times would be great work from Cal. While I am a fan of his, logic dictates that if Cal gets more 2nds this season - then Factory guys are crashing or under-performing, AND / OR Cal really will be proving he's very special indeed.

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TalentFan

May 21, 2013 7:31 PM

MOTOGP » Le Mans: Valentino Rossi 'A good result thrown away'

@ Realist I also mentioned Mugello because of Vale's record there (I was there watching in 2007 from the Ducati stand (I'm not Ducatisti - just happened to get a ticket to sit there). It could be argued that if Vale is going to win anywhere, it'll be at Mugello. So if he cannot be very strong here, then I'd say it doesn't bode well for lots of top 2 finishes for Vale. But if he wins, it might just be a whole new ball game.

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TalentFan

May 21, 2013 7:24 PM

MOTOGP » Le Mans: Valentino Rossi 'A good result thrown away'

@ Realist I thought Rossi's ride at Qatar was impressive. I'll admit that I wasn't sure at all that VR would be able to beat JL or DP (MM was a complete unknown as a rookie). Due to his Factory Yamaha Team advantage, then my expectation was that Rossi would consistently finish in the bottom half of the Top 4 - & Rossi promptly tried to prove me wrong with a great ride at Qatar. I didn't take it as an indicator of the season potential though, due to the general oddity that is Qatar. I think Mugello and some other Euro rounds will cement that - & I still stand by my initial thoughts so far (though Marquez is also throwing a curve ball in there and making Rossi's job a lot harder). I do take your point. However Cal has also had a 2nd - do you take that as an indicator of HIS potential for the rest of the season?

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